Lower MBA Application Volumes in 2009-2010?

I posted an article that suggests 2009-2010 might see lower application volumes on the BW Forums a few days ago. At lunch today, a couple of people from work (most of whom are applying to MBAs this fall) took the time to think through it.

Here's what most essay consultants will tell you to get you to spend money:

Higher GMAT volume: You will often hear that more people are taking the GMAT, so more people will apply for MBAs, implying competition's tough and that you need to get help from the so called pros. Everyone at the lunch table had taken the GMAT more than once. The maximum being 3 times. So you can see, an increase in the number of GMAT tests administered doesn't necessarily mean more applicants, it just means people are taking the test more than once to get better scores. (Still not convinced whether it will be more competitive?)

Higher MBA application volume in 2008-2009: Data from last year's application numbers (as reported by Sandy/HBSGuru and many others)suggests that R1 numbers went up considerably due to layoffs in the financial industry, after which R2 numbers were flat or down. Most people who applied in R1, applied to many more schools than usual. My co-workers will submit applications for 6 schools (on average, compared to the standard of 3 schools pre-recession) during R1 and R2. Does it mean more people want an MBA? Not really. Does it mean competition is up? Not really. What it does mean though is that backup schools are in a soup. They are going to find it hard to recruit people who wont pay the big bucks for an MBA unless its at a top 10 school.

Here's what my co-workers and I are betting on will happen in 2009-2010:

R1 will be favorable for backup and Tier-2 schools: If you're considering a back-up school, it might be a good idea to get an application in before the R1 deadline. Your application will be viewed in positive light and probably have higher chances of admission, as schools want to admit students and get their deposits as soon as possible. It also helps back-up schools plan better for later rounds. Our consensus was that weaker candidates will especially benefit from this.

R2 will be favorable for top schools: Applying R2 will accord you two benefits. First, if you have submitted an R1 application (or two) you've gotten better at telling your story. Second, you're not going to be competing in a shark pool with Type-A's and overachievers. Non traditional candidates may receive positive consideration in R2 purely because the bulk of finance, consulting and technology spots will be at 50-60% capacity when decisions go out for R1.

"B-Schools are desperate" Schools are accepting the GRE, taking college seniors, reducing application fees and introducing early decision/action deadlines. If this isn't a signal that schools foresee trouble in recruiting MBAs, I don't know what is.

I'm not saying getting in will be a cake walk, but definitely if you play your cards right there is no reason to doubt that you can make it to a good school.

Keep your hopes up folks and keep plugging away, there will be a b-school where you'll be happy at the end of it all.